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- JPY: BoJ a non-event; 5 reasons why investors should get ready for big volatility in the fall - BofA
JPY: BoJ a non-event; 5 reasons why investors should get ready for big volatility in the fall - BofA
eFXdata reports that Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for USD/JPY price action around this week's BoJ policy meeting.
"The FX market's attention to the BoJ's next MPM remains minimal with the BoJ expected to stand pat. Both USD/JPY and cross-yen vols have fallen to post-COVID-19 lows as the market has digested the initial shock of the outbreak and subsequent policy response," BofA notes.
"Looking beyond summer, we think the fall could raise USD/JPY volatility for several reasons:
Risk of snap election as early as in October and/or leadership change in Japan
Focus on the Fed's policy, in particular implementation or the lack thereof of YCT and its details.
US presidential election.
How fiscal and monetary easing in the spring is feeding into the real economy.
With a recovery in Japan's basic balance of payments and proactive trading in US equities by Japanese investors, USD/JPY may be more sensitive to the US's idiosyncratic risk.
Lastly, near-term focus is on the COVID-19 outbreak in the US, and the recent pickup in infection cases in Tokyo," BofA adds.
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