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- ‘We could have another 10% fall, easily,’ Allianz’s chief economist warns
‘We could have another 10% fall, easily,’ Allianz’s chief economist warns
CNBC reports that Wall Street could be headed for correction territory if there is a shift in investor attitude, Allianz’s chief economist Mohamed El-Erian said after the biggest market decline in months.
Investors have taken a liquidity approach to the market and buying the dips, thanks to stimulus action from the Federal Reserve. That mindset will be tested in the coming days as market fundamentals come into play, he said in an interview on CNBC.
If a mindset shift is looming, El-Erian suggests market players should look out below.
“We could have another 10% fall, easily ... if people start thinking fundamentals,” El-Erian predicted.
“If the mindset changes from technicals to fundamentals then this market has further to go,” he added, “but it remains to be seen whether it will change.”
El-Erian said the market, though, remains decoupled from not only the U.S. economy, but the VIX, treasury and high-yield markets at current levels. With the tech-heavy Nasdaq up double digits and the benchmark index up nearly 7%, the market was ripe for a pullback after five straight months of gains and the strongest August in decades, he said.
Should the market be judged by fundamentals, investors will be forced to take into account the precarious state of the economy as corporate bankruptcies still loom. He warned almost a month ago that large-scale bankruptcies could doom the market’s rally from its pandemic-induced lows in the first half of 2020.
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