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- ECB's president Lagarde: Incoming data suggest more pronounced near term impact of the pandemic
ECB's president Lagarde: Incoming data suggest more pronounced near term impact of the pandemic
- Eurozone's economy is seen shrinking in Q4
- The depth and duration of the second coronavirus wave is bigger than expected
- Q4 GDP growth seen at -2.2%
- Service sector activity is severely curbed
- Inflation remains very low
- PEPP envelope needs not be used in full
- Envelope can be recalibrated if needed
- ECB sees 2020 GDP growth at -7.3% vs. -8% seen in September
- Sees 2021 GDP growth at 3.9% vs. 5% seen in September
- sees 2022 GDP growth at 4.2% vs. 3.2% seen in September
- Sees 2023 GDP growth at 2.1%
- Says risks to growth remain to the downside, but have become less pronounced
- ECB sees 2020 inflation at 0.2% vs. 0.3% seen in September
- Sees 2021 inflation at 1.0% vs. 1.0% in September
- Sees 2022 inflation at 1.1% vs. 1.3% seen in September
- Says fiscal message should be targeted, temporary
- Risks of delayed recovery warrants fiscal support
- ECB doesn't target the exchange rate
- Euro appreciation is important, puts downward pressure on prices
- ECB will very carefully monitor the exchange rate
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