UK unemployment rate rose less than forecast in the three months to October 2020

The Office for National Statistics said that early estimates for November 2020 suggest that there is a slight drop over the month in the number of payroll employees in the UK. Since February 2020, the number of payroll employees has fallen by 819,000; however, the larger falls were seen at the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Data from our Labour Force Survey (LFS) show a large increase in the unemployment rate while the employment rate continues to fall. The number of redundancies reached a record high in August to October 2020 although the weekly data show that while the level remains high there was a slight decrease in October.

The UK employment rate, in the three months to October 2020, was estimated at 75.2%, 0.9 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

The UK unemployment rate, in the three months to October 2020, was estimated at 4.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. Unemployment was expected to rise to 5.1%.

Early estimates for November 2020 indicate that the number of payrolled employees fell by 2.7% compared with November 2019, which is a fall of 781,000 employees; since February 2020, 819,000 fewer people were in payrolled employment.

The Claimant Count increased slightly in November 2020, to 2.7 million; this includes both those working with low income or hours and those who are not working.

There were an estimated 547,000 vacancies in the UK in September to November 2020; this is 251,000 fewer than a year ago and 110,000 more than the previous quarter.

Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees for the three months August to October 2020 increased to 2.7%, and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) also increased to 2.8%.