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- French GDP fell more than expected in fourth quarter
French GDP fell more than expected in fourth quarter
According to the report from the Insee, in Q4 2020, GDP measured in volume fell (–1.4%) after its rebound in Q3 (+18.5%). Economists had expected a 1.3% decrease. In Q4, during which the second national lockdown and curfews were enforced, GDP stood 4.9% below its level in Q4 2019 (year-on-year evolution). Its year-on-year decline was moderate when compared to the drop in Q2, when the first lockdown occurred (–18.6% year-on-year). On average in 2020, the economic activity unprecedentedly fell, by −8.2% after +1.5% in 2019. The annual estimation of the activity drop and other economic aggregate established by summing all 4 quarters will be consolidated at then end of May 2021, along with the publication of the provisory annual account of 2020.
The sanitary measures in Q4 were reflected in a sharp drop of households’ consumption expenditure (−5.4% in Q4, after +18.1% in Q3). In contrast, gross fixed capital product (GFCF) continued the recovery which had already begun last quarter (+1.1% in Q4 after +24.1% in Q3). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding changes in inventory) fell, contributing by –2.9 points to GDP growth this quarter, after +19.3 points in Q3.
Foreign trade also continued its rebound and exports increased more than imports (+5.8% after +22.1% for exports, and +1.8% after +16.4% for imports). Overall, foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q4: +1.0 point, after +0.8 points in Q3 2020. Finally, changes in inventories also made a positive contribution to GDP growth (+0.4 points after –1.7 points).
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