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- Slow population growth means low interest rates are likely here to stay - JP Morgan
Slow population growth means low interest rates are likely here to stay - JP Morgan
CNBC reports that according to new research from JP Morgan, slowing population growth across the globe could have a major impact on real interest rates.
With more old people saving for retirement and fewer young people borrowing for things like properties, cars and education, demographics are weighing heavy on interest rates in a trend that is set to continue, Jesse Edgerton, a senior economist at JP Morgan, told.
“The slowdown in population growth, which we’ve been seeing for decades in both developed and emerging markets, is a reason to expect lower real interest rates,” Edgerton told.
Japan, Europe and the U.S. have all experienced declining real interest rates in recent decades, as birth rates and gross domestic product (GDP) have fallen, and life expectancy rates have risen in tandem.
China is now “fairly far down that path,” said Edgerton, referring to its slowing birth rate and aging population.
Emerging markets — where population growth remains higher — can expect to follow suit as they develop over time, he added.
That’s because money is not being put to work in the same way, driving down returns and interest rates, said Edgerton.
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