Growth in UK retail sales volumes unexpectedly eases in May - CBI

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Tuesday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance declined to +18 in the year to May from +20 in April, being broadly average for the time of year.

Economist had forecast the reading to improve to +30.

The report also revealed that the retail orders balance (+22 from -1) grew in the year to May, albeit in comparison to May 2020, when the first national lockdown depressed activity in the sector. Average selling prices rose at their fastest rate since November 2019 (+53 from +28), with similar growth expected in the year to June (+53).

In other survey results, stock levels in relation to expected sales were seen as too low (-15 from 0, which was the lowest balance in survey history) and were forecast to remain so next month (-4).

In other survey results, employment in the retail sector continued to drop sharply in the year to May (-37 from -44) and was anticipated to continue to do so next month (-37). Investment intentions for the year ahead in May grew at the quickest pace since February 1994 (+35 from -8 in February).

“The fact that sales were in line with seasonal norms is a definite improvement from earlier in the year, but this month’s survey was perhaps a touch disappointing after April’s stronger results,” noted Ben Jones, Principal Economist at the CBI. “Some retailers have suggested the increase in demand after the initial reopening of non-essential retail in early April was either short-lived or less strong than expected. And non-store sales remain well above seasonal norms, suggesting that some consumers who migrated to online shopping during the pandemic have not fully shifted back to old habits.”