June flashlight for the FOMC blackout period - Wells Fargo Securities

ActionForex reports that analysts at Wells Fargo Securities do not expect the FOMC to make any major policy changes at its meeting on June 15-16.

"We think it is unlikely that the FOMC will make any major policy changes at its meeting on June 15-16. Although we do not believe the FOMC will make any changes to its current pace of asset purchases in June, the minutes of the April meeting showed that the topic was broached. The opening discussion regarding the eventual “tapering” of asset purchases likely will take place at this meeting."

"The Committee likely will upgrade its assessment of the current state of the economy relative to the statement that was released at the conclusion of the last FOMC meeting on April 18."

"The FOMC will release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We look for the Committee to raise its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in 2021. Of more importance to the outlook for future rate hikes will be the inflation forecast for 2022 and 2023. We expect these forecasts to show that the Fed still deems recent inflation strength as transitory, but the SEP is also likely to show FOMC members believing risks around inflation are increasingly tilted toward the upside."

"Accordingly, the “dot plot” could shift up a bit for 2023."

"Cash continues to pour into the financial system, putting downward pressure on short-term interest rates. To nudge short-term interest rates a bit higher, the FOMC could increase the rates paid on excess reserves (IOER) and on reverse repurchase agreements. But any increases in these rates, should they indeed occur, would be done for operational reasons. They should not be interpreted as a sign that monetary tightening is imminent."