BOE balances recovery boost against inflation

Bloomberg reports that the Bank of England has a big task on Thursday, balancing the need to keep the economy recovering while limiting inflation and speculation about rising interest rates.

While a growing minority of economists has brought forward its expectations for when the BOE will tighten monetary policy, millions of workers remain unemployed or on furlough. That’s left both the Treasury and central bank wanting to maintain stimulus until the recovery is more entrenched. Those forces point to a shift in tone but not policy.

Given the current strength of the U.K. rebound -- manufacturing and housing roaring ahead, payrolls rising, consumers upbeat about the outlook -- the BOE will have to acknowledge recent positive signs. But against that, there are risks from the delta variant of the coronavirus and uncertainty about whether the current growth carries over into the second half of the year.

Investors and economists will scour the MPC statement for any signs on a preferred course of action. The majority, however, expects the meeting to put the BOE in a holding pattern until at least August, when officials will have more information on the reopening of the economy, delayed until mid-July, and new forecasts.

The BOE’s benchmark rate is at a record-low 0.1% and the nine-member MPC is forecast to vote unanimously this week to keep it there. On bond-buying, the vote will be 8-1 as Chief Economist Andy Haldane once again pushes to pare back stimulus.

Some banks have shifted their views recently and the idea of a 2022 rate increase has become less of an outlier view. Credit Suisse Group AG sees the BOE raising rates next year, earlier than previously forecast, as does Bank of America.

Money markets are betting on a 15 basis-point increase by June next year. That’s almost double compared to before the last monetary policy meeting in May.