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- USD needs a much larger surprise on NFP to sustain further gains - TDS
USD needs a much larger surprise on NFP to sustain further gains - TDS
FXStreet notes that the dollar remains a touch higher against most G10 and major EM currencies ahead of today’s US employment data. Economists at TD Securities think a much larger upside surprise is needed for the USD to sustain further gains and see a potential acceleration to the upside.
“We think today's reading could be a very important one for FX market direction over the next several weeks – particularly on an outlier.”
“TD is above the consensus on headline NFP, but we think FX markets would take this in stride as small upside risks already look priced. After a solid run higher, we think the USD would need a particularly strong reading to see sustained upside from current levels.”
“A weaker report would naturally see some correction of recent gains, but we think investors may be more forgiving of a disappointment.”
“Our base case suggests the USD is likely to revert to consolidation mode against most G10 peers – at least once any knee-jerk reaction is out of the way.”
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