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- European session review: EUR appreciates, supported by better-than-expected Eurozone’s Q2 GDP reading and June unemployment rate that outweigh hotter-than-expected July CPI data
European session review: EUR appreciates, supported by better-than-expected Eurozone’s Q2 GDP reading and June unemployment rate that outweigh hotter-than-expected July CPI data
| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | France | GDP, q/q | Quarter II | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, y/y | July | 1.5% | 1% | 1.2% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | July | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| 07:00 | Switzerland | KOF Leading Indicator | July | 133.3 | 130 | 129.8 |
| 08:00 | Germany | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter II | -2.1% | 2% | 1.5% |
| 08:00 | Germany | GDP (YoY) | Quarter II | -3.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Unemployment Rate | June | 8% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | July | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | July | 1.9% | 2% | 2.2% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | July | 0.3% | -0.1% | |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | GDP (YoY) | Quarter II | -1.3% | 13.2% | 13.7% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter II | -0.3% | 1.5% | 2% |
EUR strengthened against most of its major rivals in the European session on Friday, as investors digested a raft of important economic data out of the Eurozone, including Q2 GDP, June jobless rate and July CPI.
Eurostat reported its preliminary estimates showed that the Eurozone’s GDP grew 2% q/q in the second quarter, rebounding from two consecutive periods of contractions (-0.6% q/q in 4Q2020 and -0.3% q/q in 1Q2021). Economists had expected a 1.5% q/q growth. On a y/y basis, the region’s GDP recovered 13.7%, also exceeding economists’ forecast of 13.2% advance.
In a separate report, Eurostat announced that the euro area's annual inflation rate increased to 2.2% in July from 1.9% in the previous month. This was the highest reading since October of 2018 and exceeded economists’ forecast of 2%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dropped to 0.7% this month from 0.9% in June. The rate was expected to ease to 0.8%.
In addition, Eurostat’s estimates revealed that the region’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.7% in June from a revised 8.0% in May (originally 7.9%). This was the lowest reading since May 2020 and below economists’ forecast of 7.9%.
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