European session review: EUR appreciates, as investors assess slew of economic data from Eurozone and Germany, while preparing for ECB’s meeting

EUR rose against most of its major rivals in the European session on Tuesday, as investors assessed a slew of economic data from the Eurozone and Germany, the region's biggest economy, preparing for the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting later this week.

Eurostat reported that the euro area's GDP rose 2.2% q/q in the second quarter of 2021, compared with a preliminary estimate of 2.0% q/q advance. In y/y terms, the GDP grew 14.3% in the second quarter. This was better than a previously estimated gain of 13.6% and marked the fastest expansion on record. Economists had forecast that both final quarterly and annual rates of the GDP growth would be left unrevised. 

The statistical office of the European Union also announced that the eurozone's employment increased 0.7% q/q in the second quarter and 1.8% y/y. Economists had forecast both readings to remain unrevised compared with the preliminary estimates, showing a 0.5% q/q advance and a 1.8% y/y climb for the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the latest survey from the ZEW economic research institute showed that economic sentiment in the Eurozone weakened sharply in September. The ZEW’s investor sentiment index for the Eurozone plunged 11.6 points to 31.1 points in September. This was the lowest level since April 2020. On a positive note, its indicator for the current economic situation in the Eurozone surged 7.9 points to 22.5 points and its inflation indicator for the region plunged 22.1 points to 20.1 points, pointing to the continuing decline in inflation expectations.  The report also revealed that economic sentiment in Germany dropped for the fourth consecutive month in September, with the corresponding indicator tumbling 13.9 points to 26.5 points in September. This was the lowest reading since March 2020. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany, however, went up 2.6 points to 31.9 points. The current reading of the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany implies that over the next six months economic growth in Germany will only slightly be higher than its current rate, the report said.

Elsewhere, data from Destatis showed that Germany's industrial production recovered in July after three months of declines. According to the report, German industrial output rose 1.0% m/m in July, recording its first monthly gain in four months. Economists had forecast a 0.9% m/m rise in July. On a y/y basis, industrial production jumped 5.7% in July. Compared with February 2020, the month before COVID-19 restrictions were imposed in Germany, production was still 5.5% lower.

Market participants are preparing for the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday, at which its policymakers are to review the Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP).