SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%, as expected

The SNB is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy with a view to ensuring price stability and providing ongoing support to the Swiss economy in its recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. 

SNB remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, in order to counter upward pressure on the Swiss franc.

The Swiss franc remains highly valued.

The new conditional inflation forecast for 2021 and 2022 is slightly higher than in June. 

This is again primarily due to somewhat higher prices for oil products as well as for goods affected by supply bottlenecks. 

In the longer term, the inflation forecast is virtually unchanged compared with June. 

The new forecast stands at 0.5% for 2021, 0.7% for 2022, and 0.6% for 2023. 

The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at −0.75% over the entire forecast horizon.

In its baseline scenario for Switzerland, the SNB anticipates a continuation of the economic recovery. 

This is also based on the assumption that the pandemic containment measures will not need to be tightened significantly again. 

Against this backdrop, the SNB expects GDP growth of around 3% for 2021. 

In June, the SNB had still been assuming higher growth.

The downward revision is primarily attributable to the development of consumer-related industries such as the trade industry and hospitality, which performed less dynamically than expected.

GDP is likely to return to its pre-crisis level in the second half of the year. 

However, overall production capacity will remain underutilised for some time yet. 

Owing to the pandemic, the forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, remains subject to heightened uncertainty.