UK annual house price growth slows in September

According to the report from Nationwide Building Society, UK annual house price growth eased back to 10.0%, from 11.0% in August. Economists had expected a 10.7% increase.

Prices little changed month-on-month (+0.1%), after taking account of seasonal factors. Economists had expected a 0.6% increase.

Nationwide said that Wales and Northern Ireland the strongest performing regions in Q3, London the weakest.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “Annual house price growth remained in double digits for the fifth month in a row in September, though there was a modest slowdown to 10.0%. House prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal effects. As a result, house prices remain c13% higher than before the pandemic began in early 2020.

“House prices have continued to rise more quickly than earnings in recent quarters, which means affordability is becoming more stretched. Raising a deposit remains the main barrier for most prospective first-time buyers. A 20% deposit on a typical first-time buyer home is now around 113% of gross income – a record high.

“As we look towards the end of the year, the outlook remains uncertain. Activity is likely to soften for a period after the stamp duty holiday expires at the end of September, given the incentive for people to bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. Moreover, underlying demand is likely to soften around the turn of the year if unemployment rises as government support winds down, as seems likely. But this is far from assured. The labour market has remained remarkably resilient to date and, even if it does weaken, there is scope for shifts in housing preferences as a result of the pandemic – such as wanting more space or to relocate – to continue to support activity for some time yet.”