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- IMF: headline CPI should peak this fall and recede to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, - Reuters
IMF: headline CPI should peak this fall and recede to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, - Reuters
- But risks remain that shortage-driven inflation spikes could prove more persistent
- Its baseline forecast sees advanced economies' headline inflation peaking at 3.6% this fall and dropping to about 2% by mid-2022
- Sees emerging market and developing economies' inflation peaking at 6.8% this fall and decreasing to about 4% next year
- Sharply rising housing prices and prolonged input supply shortages in advanced and developing economies and continued food price pressures and currency depreciations in emerging markets could keep inflation elevated for longer
- Inflation expectations tend to be well-anchored in countries with independent central banks that have credible, well-communicated monetary policies
- Inflation accelerations, especially in emerging markets, are often associated with sharp exchange rate depreciations; in advanced economies, they are often preceded by large fiscal deficits
- Anchor for inflation expectations has remained relatively stable so far during the COVID-19 pandemic
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