USD/CHF Price Analysis: A break above 0.9200 puts 0.9300 in-sight

• USD/CHF begins the week on the right foot, up 0.43%.
• Risk-on market sentiment weighs on the Swiss franc.
• Inflation worries ease as investors focus on stocks, as US Government T-bond yields fall.

The USD/CHF climbs at the beginning of the week, trading at 0.9195 during the New York session at the time of writing.  The market sentiment is positive, portrayed by US stock indices rising between 0.22% and 1.10%, while the US dollar is also gaining traction, hurting the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

In the meantime, inflation worries seem to fade some as witnessed by falling US T-bond yields. The 10-year benchmark note rate falls two basis points (bps) to sit at 1.634%, while the 30-year US Treasury yield is flat at 2.085%. Contrarily the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of its peers, advances some 0.20%, currently at 93.83.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Daily chart

The USD/CHF is trading above the 100-day moving average (DMA), which lies at 0.9180. Early during the Asian session, the pair traded sideways around the three-month support at 0.9150. However, the confluence of an upward slope trendline from June to August lows unsuccessfully broken, and the October 22 low at 0.9150 spurred a bounce up to 0.9200.

For USD/CHF buyers to resume the upward trend, they will need a daily close above 0.9200. In that outcome, the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.9217 would be the first resistance. An upside break could push the price toward the October 18 high at 0.9273, followed by the October 12 high at 0.9313.

On the flip side, failure at 0.9200 would keep the USD/CHF range-bound within the 50-pip range of 0.9150-0.9200. Either way, in case of a break lower of the range, it would open a test of the 0.9100 figure, which was unsuccessfully tested two times in September.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, aiming higher, indicating that the pair could trend up, but it does not have enough upward force, so traders might wait for the RSI to pierce above the 50-midline, before putting aggressive bets.

KEY ADDITIONAL LEVELS TO WATCH