- Analiza
- Novosti i instrumenti
- Vesti sa tržišta
- Fed's Waller: Could start shrinking Fed balance sheet by summer
Fed's Waller: Could start shrinking Fed balance sheet by summer
Federal Reserve's Christopher Waller said three hikes in 2022 are still a good baseline but he said if inflation stays high there could be four or even five hikes.
Key notes
Could also allow the balance sheet to run off earlier.
Doesn't favour 50bps Fed hike in March.
Could start shrinking Fed balance sheet by summer.
Can shrink balance sheet by allowing organic runoff.
Expect inflation around 2.5% by end of 2022.
Once inflation down to 2.5% rapid rate hikes no longer needed.
Fed can take action on balance sheet to prevent yield curve flattening if needed.
Inflation has stayed higher for longer than any of us thought it would.
Fed has to be ready to make quick changes in direction, speed, depending on data.
If inflation stays above 3%, clearly we would need to do more, and potentially rethink framework.
High inflation caught us off guard in what it implies for framework.
Market implications
After Fed's Williams on Friday, Fed speakers will then enter blackout on communications this weekend and the markets are already expecting a rate increase as soon as the end of this quarter. The Fed has guided that rates can start to go up as soon as March.
However, the balance sheet runoff has been rethought by my markets this week, with some members suggesting it will not happen until late in the year or next year. This has stripped US yields and the US dollar lower. Waller is on the more hawkish side, however,
Meanwhile, the US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, has moved in on a critical level of daily support and would now be expected to correct higher as follows:
© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.
Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.
Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.
Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.
Банковни транcфери
