WTI recovers back above $92.00 post-bullish IEA report, still set for first weekly loss in eight

• WTI prices are up on Friday and back above $91.00, though remain set for their first weekly decline in eight.
• US/Iran negotiations, Fed tightening fears and pressure on the Saudis/UAE to pump more is holding back the bull market.

Oil prices trade high on the final trading day of the week, with front-month WTI futures having moved back to the north of the $91.00 level in recent trade. At current levels around $91.20 per barrel, WTI trade with on-the-day gains of slightly more than $1.0, though prices have remained within Thursday’s intra-day $89.00-$91.70ish range. Market commentators are citing a bullish monthly report from the Internation Energy Agency (IEA), which upgraded its 2022 demand forecast by 800K barrels per day (BPD). This was in part due to revisions to historical data, but markets took as a bullish sign given that the OPEC+ monthly report this week was also bullish on the demand recovery in 2022.

The IEA now expects oil demand to rise by 3.2M BPD by the end of 2022 versus the end of 2021, taking daily consumption to a record high 100.6M barrels. Despite the bullish forecasts, WTI still looks set to end the week slightly more than 50 cents lower. That would mark the first weekly decline for WTI in eight. Though prices have been well supported by dip-buying in the $88.00-$89.00 area, profit-taking after WTI hit seven-year highs above $92.00 per barrel last week has kept trade rangebound.

Analysts are citing a few worries/themes that are preventing a continuation of oil’s recent bullish run. Firstly, indirect US/Iran talks recommenced this week spurring the usual chatter about a potential deal being reached and north of 1M BPD in Iranian exports coming back online (there are no signs a deal is any closer, however). Secondly, as evidence of OPEC+'s struggles to keep up with their own output quota hikes builds, pressure is growing on the Saudis and UAE to make up for the shortfall.

The IEA’s report on Friday said that OPEC+ was underproducing relative to its allowed output under the current agreement by 900K BPD. The Agency called on Saudi Arabia and the UAE (the two OPEC+ nations with the sparest output capacity) to increase output in the short term. Finally, some traders are citing the dent to global equity market sentiment on Thursday after much hotter than expected US inflation figures stoked Fed tightening bets as weighing on risk appetite sensitive crude oil markets.