Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD steady around $1860s despite US dollar strength and high US bond yields

• Gold remains stable during the North American session, up 0.41%.
• A dampened market mood spurred by geopolitical jitters witnessed flows towards the safe-haven status of gold.
• XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Upward biased, though a clear break above $1877 would put $1900 at reach.

The safest haven asset of all, gold, remains steady during the beginning of the week, despite a stronger US dollar across the board. However, it retreats from daily tops around $1,871 as geopolitical tensions appear to ease in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. That said, XAU/USD is trading at $1,867, up some 0.43% at the time of writing.

Financial markets sentiment remains downbeat, as shown by global equities falling, except for the Nasdaq Composite in the US. US Treasury yields keep rising, led by the 10-year T-note yield, at 2.021%, up to ten basis points in the day, though the non-yielding metal remains stubbornly in the green, amid escalations in the eastern Europe conflict.

In the meantime, Russia / Ukraine geopolitical jitters are the leading indicator in the markets at press time. Earlier, as reported by CNN, the US intelligence is assessing Russian military plans, including the surrounding of Kyiv, within 24-48 hrs from the start of military action. Nevertheless, early messages from the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday said Russia could move forward with talks, emphasizing that the west has failed to address Russia’s interests.

Those remarks appeared to ease the market mood, though they failed to reignite a rally in US equities.

Regarding the economic docket, the Fed speaking in the likes of St. Louis President James Bullard, crossed the wires. He commented that he keeps his 1% threshold by July 1st at 1% concerning interest rates. While speaking of the balance sheet, he is worried that the Fed is not moving fast enough and would like to reduce the balance sheet in Q2. 

XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading above a nine-month-old, despite rising US T-bond yields and broad US dollar strength across the board. Furthermore, it is trading above the mid-line between the center-top Pitchfork’s uptrend channel, a confluence, which once broken, would expose the top of it, around the $1,872-75 area.

That said, the XAU/USD first resistance would be November’s 16 swing high at $1,877. Breach of the latter would expose the  $1,900 psychological level, followed by June 1st swing high at $1,916.

Contrarily, in the event of XAU/USD moving downward, it would expose crucial support levels, like the mid-line between the top-central Pitchfork’s channel around the $1,850-55 regions, followed by the central trendline at the $1,832-35 area, followed by the confluence of the 50 and the 200-DMA at the $1,809-07 range.