AUD/USD reached a YTD high, but profit-taking tumbled the pair below 0.7500

• The AUD/USD is down 0.28% in the last week of March, on a mixed market mood, and a buoyant greenback.
• The market mood improved late in the North American session, US equities gained.
• AUD/USD Price Forecast: Upward biased, though a daily close below 0.7500 would mean the pair is correcting lower before resuming the uptrend.

The Australian dollar slumps from YTD highs around 0.7540 as market sentiment fluctuates courtesy of Russia – Ukraine’s woes, China’s Covid-19 outbreak, and higher inflation prompted global central banks to tighten monetary policy conditions. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7492.

The market mood turned positive on Russia – Ukraine headlines, and Shanghai entered into lockdown on the Covid-19 outbreak

Risk appetite continues to be influenced by geopolitical jitters and the weekend Covid-19 outbreak in China, which affected Shanghai, one of the largest cities, weighed on market sentiment. Meanwhile, Russia – Ukraine woes keep grabbing the headlines.

Late in the North American session, sources linked to the Financial Times expressed that Russia is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains military non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations. That headline lifted US equities, which made a U-turn and ended Wall Street’s trading session in the green.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against its peers, stays resilient, up 0.38%, sitting at 99.160, while US Treasury yields fall.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD retreated below the 0.7500 mark in the mid-European session, but late is staging a recovery towards the figure. On the last three days, the Aussie consolidated in the 0.7450-0.7530 range until Monday’s price action, when the pair managed to record a YTD high around 0.7540, retreating afterward.

On the downside, the AUD/USD first support would be 0.7478. A breach of the latter would expose March 7 daily high at 0.7441, followed by 0.7400.

Upwards, the AUD/USD’s first resistance would be the 0.7500 mark. Once cleared, the next resistance would be Monday’s daily high at 0.7540, followed by October 28, 2021, a daily high at 0.7555, and then the 0.7600 mark.