Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD consolidates the rebound below key $1,960 level ahead of Powell

• Gold Price is back in the red, as sellers keep lurking just below $1,960.
• The US dollar rebounds with yields, capping the XAUUSD rebound.
• All eyes now remain on Fed Chair Powell’s and US President Biden’s speech.

Gold Price is in a narrow consolidative range so far this Thursday, having stalled its rebound just shy of the key $1,960 level.

A rebound in the US dollar alongside the Treasury yields after Wednesday’s sell-off, triggered by the profit-taking slide in the USD/JPY pair, is limiting the recovery in XAUUSD from weekly lows of $1,939.

The US dollar index is flirting with the session highs of 100.50, reversing a slide to near the 100.20 region. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are rising 0.81% on the day, currently trading at 2.86%.

Gold Price could see further downside risks in the near term on an increasingly hawkish Fed, which has sent the US 10-year real yields into the positive territory for the first time in two years.

The sentiment on global markets will be also closely followed for its impact on the safe-haven Gold Price amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine war, concerning inflation levels that threaten the economic recovery worldwide.

Also read: Powell Preview: Fed Chair set to be humble due to three uncertainties, triggering a dollar downfall

The main event risk for Gold Price on Thursday remains Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Summit. His comments will hold the key, as they come just before the bank enters its "blackout" period.

Powell may fail to excite the dollar bulls and could emerge as a boon for Gold Price, as he may refrain from hinting at an aggressive tightening outlook after the US core inflation eased a bit in March.

Gold Price Chart: Four-hour chart

Gold’s four-hour chart shows that the price is defending the critical 200-SImple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,951.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching lower below the midline, suggesting that a further downside could be in the offing.

If the 200-SMA support gives way, then the horizontal 100-SMA at $1,945 will get tested. The additional downside will call for a test of the previous day’s low of $1,939.

On the upside, recapturing the previous year’s high at $1,960 is critical for extending the recovery, above which the bullish 50-SMA at $1,963 will come into play.  

Further up, the downward-sloping 21-SMA at $1,968 will challenge the bearish commitments.