WTI stable in low $100s as oil traders weigh OPEC+ supply woes versus global growth slowdown concerns

• WTI is stable in the low $100s as traders mull various crude oil market themes.
• Concerns about OPEC+ supply amid expectations for further Russian output decline and difficulties in Libya are keeping prices above $100.
• But rising concerns about slowing global growth this week prevented WTI from testing $110.

Crude oil markets are trading in stable fashion, with front-month WTI futures trading near the $103.00 level, with the 21 and 50-Day Moving Averages (DMA) at $102.70 and just under $101.00 constraining the price action as oil traders mull various competing themes. There has been chatter throughout the week about a potential EU ban on Russian crude oil imports, which could put the nation’s output under further pressure. The International Energy Agency already predicts Russian output to fall by as much as 3M barrels per day (BPD) by May.

Meanwhile, oil traders have also had to contend with increased concerns about the output capacity other major OPEC+ producers, after news broke earlier this week about disruptions in Libya (a 550K shortfall, the state-owned oil producer said) and a Reuters survey revealed OPEC+ output missing its output target by a massive 1.5M barrels per day in March. Fears about near-term crude oil market tightness are for now keeping WTI supported to the north of the $100 per barrel mark.

But oil traders have also had to contend with growing fears about a global growth slowdown as rampant global inflation spurs central banks to tighten financial conditions and amid the negative impact of the Russo-Ukraine war and most recent lockdowns in China. This, combined with some chatter about the Kazakh Caspian Pipeline Consortium (which carries roughly 1M BPD or 1% of global supply) soon returning to full capacity, is keeping WTI pinned in the low $100s for now.

Later in the session, oil traders will be watching what various central bank heads, including the Fed’s Jerome Powell and ECB’s Christine Lagarde, have to say on monetary policy, and whether this impacts broader risk appetite.