USD/CAD rallies above 1.2700, set for biggest one-day gain since November amid risk-off flows

• USD/CAD rallied roughly 140 pips on Friday to hit its highest level in over one month above the 1.2700 mark.
• That marks the largest one-day percentage gain since November.
• The pair rallied as a function of risk-off flows, with recent BoC hawkishness and strong data failing to support CAD.

USD/CAD rallied roughly 140 pips on Friday to hit its highest level in more than one month above the 1.2700 mark and, at current levels in around 1.2720, trades with on the day gains of about 1.1%. The pair’s rally comes despite what would normally be a (minorly) bearish combination of better than expected Canadian (Retail Sales) data and worse than expected US (flash PMI) data.

The pair’s jump, its largest since November 2021 which also saw it break cleanly to the north of its 50 and 200-Day Moving Averages in the low-1.2600s, also comes despite hawkish commentary from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem earlier in the week, who signaled the likelihood of further 50 bps rate moves in the weeks ahead.

USD/CAD’s upside on Friday can largely be explained by a risk-off trend in the markets on Friday, with major US equity bourses sliding more than 2.0% each to hit fresh monthly lows and traders citing fears about global central bank policy tightening. Indeed, it's not just the BoC giving off a hawkish message in recent days. Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively gave the nod to 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings and even policymakers at the ECB are talking about rate hikes as soon as July.

Looking ahead to next week, traders will probably be hoping for some stabilisation in risk appetite on Monday and, if crude oil prices remain supported, that could set the stage for a USD/CAD pullback towards this week’s levels. BoC’s Macklem will also be back on the wires on Monday, with his comments likely again to be scrutinised closely.