USD/IDR Price News: Rupiah prints three-day downtrend below $14,600 on softer Indonesia GDP growth

• USD/IDR rises to one-week high on softer Q1 2022 Indonesia GDP, firmer inflation for April.
• Broad risk-off mood underpins US dollar, China’s mixed trade numbers also favored buyers.

USD/IDR remains on the front foot at around $14,550 even after Indonesia reports a minimal change in the Q1 2022 GDP during early Monday. The pair’s weakness could be linked to the broad risk-off mood and the firmer Treasury yields that propel the US dollar.

That said, Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) of 2022 rose 5.01% YoY versus market expectations of 5.00% and 5.02% prior. The QoQ figures dropped more than -0.89% expected to -0.96%, versus 1.06% prior.

While the growth numbers dwindles in the first quarter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose past 0.83% MoM forecast to 0.95%. Further, the YoY prints also crossed 3.34% market consensus with 3.47% figures.

It’s worth noting that Indonesia’s close trade links with China also fuelled USD/IDR prices after Beijing reported mixed trade numbers for April.

Above all, the recently firmer covid woes in China, as well as the Group of Seven (G7) nations’ sanctions on Russia, appear as the key challenges to the global market sentiment of late. On the same line are growing inflation fears and resulting concerns surrounding growth, especially in Asian nations where China’s coronavirus conditions join the burden from the Western central bankers.

Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields to the fresh high since late 2018, up by two basis points (bps) near 3.15% by the press time, while S&P 500 Futures drop 1.0% and also push the US Dollar Index (DXY) to poke the 20-year high around 104.00 at the latest.

Looking forward, Wednesday’s US inflation data will be crucial for the markets after Fed Chair Jerome Powell rejected the odds of 75 basis points (bps) rate hike. That said, The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reprinted the 428K figures, if compared to the revised figures for March, by surpassing the 391K forecasts. On the same line, the Unemployment Rate also remained intact at 3.6%.

Technical analysis

A successful rebound from 50-day EMA, around $14,400, directs USD/IDR towards the previous week’s top surrounding $14,585.