NZD/USD struggles near two-week low, around mid-0.6400s amid modest USD strength

• A combination of factors dragged NZD/USD to over a two-week low on Tuesday.
• A softer risk tone undermined the risk-sensitive kiwi amid modest USD strength.
• Retreating US bond yields capped the USD gains and extended support to the pair.

The NZD/USD pair witnessed some selling for the third successive day on Tuesday and retreated further from its highest level since April 27, around the 0.6575 region touched last week. The pair maintained its bid tone through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading near a two-week low, just above mid-0.6400s.

A combination of factors assisted the US dollar to build on its recent bounce from over a one-month low, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. The market sentiment remains fragile amid concerns that a more aggressive move by major central banks to constrain inflation could pose challenges to global economic growth. This, along with the recent surge in the US Treasury bond yields continued lending support to the safe-haven greenback.

Investors seem worried that the global supply chain disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war could push consumer prices even higher and force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace. This, in turn, lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond back above 3.0%. That said, the anti-risk flow acted as a headwind for the US bond yields, which held back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets and helped limit deeper losses for the NZD/USD pair, at least for now.

The fundamental backdrop, however, seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. That said, market participants might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial US CPI report on Friday, which might influence the Fed's tightening path and provide a fresh directional impetus to the NZD/USD pair. In the meantime, the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment would drive the USD demand, producing some trading opportunities around the pair.

Technical levels to watch