AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls flirt with 200-HMA above 94.00 on RBA Minutes

• AUD/JPY grinds high for the third consecutive day, retreats from daily top of late.
• RBA Minutes portray the policymakers’ hawkish bias, Governor Lowe also signalled further rate hikes.
• Triangle breakdown, sluggish RSI challenge buyers, 100-HMA restrict short-term declines.
• Bulls need validation from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June 08-16 downside.

AUD/JPY seesaws around the 200-HMA hurdle, defending the 94.00 round figure during Tuesday’s Asian session.

The cross-currency pair’s latest moves could be linked to the hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe, as well as Minutes of the latest monetary policy.

Read: RBA Minutes: Committed to doing what is necessary to ensure inflation returns to target over time

However, the pair’s downside break of the three-day-old triangle formation and the sustained trading below the 200-HMA challenge AUD/JPY buyers. On the same line is the recent downside RSI (14).

That said, the 100-HMA level of 93.60 limits the short-term downside of the AUD/JPY pair, a break of which could direct the bears towards the 93.00 threshold before highlighting the monthly low near the 92.00 mark.

During the anticipated fall, the 92.60 and 92.40 levels may offer intermediate halts to the bears.

Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 200-HMA and the support line of the stated triangle, respectively around 94.10 and 94.35.

Also challenging the AUD/JPY buyers is the aforementioned triangle’s resistance line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, around 94.65 and 95.00 in that order.

Overall, AUD/JPY remains on the bull’s radar due to its refrain from extending the triangle breakdown, as well as staying around the 200-HMA. However, bulls need conviction.

AUD/JPY: Hourly chart

Trend: Further recovery expected