WTI bulls keep reins around $109.00 amid supply crunch woes

• WTI picks up bids to refresh intraday high, pokes one-week high during three-day uptrend.
• OPEC+ forecasts, US emergency oil reserve updates join fears of ban on Russian oil imports to favor bulls.
• Risk-off sentiment, US dollar rebound challenge upside momentum.
• Weekly inventory numbers, US CB Consumer Confidence to direct intraday moves, risk catalysts are the key.

WTI bulls attack $109.00 during a three-day uptrend to the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The black gold’s latest advances could be linked to the headlines concerning fears of a supply crunch, mainly emanating from the US and due to the sanctions on Russia. Adding to the energy benchmark’s strength could be the chatters surrounding OPEC+ forecasts for 2022 market surplus.

As per the latest updates from Reuters, “US crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 6.9 million barrels in the week to June 24, according to data from the Department of Energy.” The news also mentioned that stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 497.9 million barrels, the lowest since April 1986, according to the data.

Elsewhere, Reuters came out with the news citing an internal report prepared for the upcoming Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting, scheduled for Thursday, to report a revised down forecast of the oil market surplus for 2022. “OPEC+ trimmed its oil market surplus forecast for 2022 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.4 million bpd previously,” said the news.

Furthermore, the Group of Seven (G7) leaders showed readiness to increase hardships for Russian oil and gold while political turmoil in Libya also contributed to the black gold’s upside momentum.

On the contrary, recession fears join the likely US-Iran talks to challenge the WTI crude oil buyers. On the same line are concerns surrounding central bank aggression.

Moving on, weekly prints of the oil inventories by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as well as the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, could entertain oil traders. However, major attention will be given to risk catalyst and OPEC meeting for clear directions.

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of the previous support line from early April, around $107.50 by the press time, keeps WTI bulls hopeful. However, the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding $109.30 guards the recovery moves.