Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats towards $1,800 even as cautious optimism precedes Fed Minutes

• Gold remains pressured after a downbeat week-start amid traders’ anxiety ahead of the key data/events.
• US Treasury yields pare recent downside moves amid sluggish session.
• US-China trade headlines, upbeat performance of EU bond coupons also defend buyers.
• Sellers keep worrying global economic slowdown, US Factory Orders can direct intraday moves but FOMC Minutes, NFP is the key.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains pressured around $1,807, after beginning the week’s trading on a negative side, as traders stay worried ahead of crucial catalysts up for publication during the week. In doing so, the bright metal fails to cheer firmer US Treasury yields, as well as a pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY).

That said, the greenback gauge struggles to defend the two-day uptrend around 105.15 as buyers retreat from a two-week top.

The DXY’s latest pullback could be linked to the firmer Treasury yields. It’s worth noting that the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields keep the previous U-turn from a one-month low at around 2.95%, up by five basis points (bps) from Friday’s closing.

Underlying the firmer US Treasury yields are the firmer prints of the German Bunds and chatters surrounding the US discussion on removing the Trump-era tariffs on China. However, an offer in the US and fears of economic slowdown, as well as anxiety ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and the US Jobs report for June, appear to challenge the metal buyers.

It should be observed that the yields on the 10-year German Bund rose over 10 basis points to 1.32% at the latest.

Looking forward, US Factory Orders for May, expected 0.5% versus 0.3%, could entertain gold traders ahead of the key Fed Minutes and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Additionally important will be the updates surrounding the global economic slowdown and the US-China trade relations.

Technical analysis

A three-week-old horizontal area between $1,805 and $1,802 restricts immediate gold price downside. Also challenging the metal sellers are the steady RSI and the bullish MACD signals.

However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and descending trend line from June 16, around $1,827, guards nearby upside moves of the XAU/USD. Also acting as an upside filter is the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,840.

Meanwhile, a downside break of the $1,802, needs validation from the $1,800 threshold before challenging the yearly low surrounding $1,780.

On the contrary, gold price run-up beyond $1,840 enables the buyers to aim for June’s peak of $1,879.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Sideways