AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Retreats from 50-DMA below 1.1050 on firmer NZ inflation data

• AUD/NZD takes offers to refresh intraday low on upbeat NZ Q2 CPI.
• Failure to cross monthly resistance line, bearish MACD signals also favor sellers.
• 100-DMA appears a tough nut to crack for bears.

AUD/NZD justifies firmer New Zealand inflation data while refreshing the intraday low to 1.1017 during Monday’s initial Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair also extends pullback from the 50-DMA.

That said, New Zealand’s (NZ) second quarter (Q2) headline inflation, as per Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 7.2% YoY versus compared to 7.1% market consensus and 6.9% prior.

Also read: New Zealand Q2 Consumer Price Index rose to 7.3% YoY, NZD/USD stays firmer

In addition to the upbeat NZ data and pullback from the 50-DMA, around 1.1040 by the press time, AUD/NZD sellers also cheer bearish MACD signals and Friday’s U-turn from a downward sloping resistance line from June 16.

With this, the quote signals more downside with the 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April-May moves, near 1.0005, acting as immediate support to watch ahead of the 1.0000 psychological magnet.

It’s worth noting, however, that the 61.8% Fibo. and the 100-DMA, respectively near 1.0960 and 1.0940, appear strong supports to break for the AUD/NZD bears afterward.

Meanwhile, the 50-DMA and aforementioned resistance line, close to 1.1040 and 1.1075 in that order, restrict short-term AUD/NZD recovery.

In a case where the pair rises past 1.1075, it can aim for late June’s swing high near 1.1110 before challenging the previous monthly high near 1.1180.

Should the AUD/NZD buyers manage to keep reins past 1.1180, they can aim for the 1.1200 threshold while surpassing the May month’s peak of 1.1193.

AUD/NZD: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected