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- Dollar soft ahead of FOMC decision – BBH
Dollar soft ahead of FOMC decision – BBH
“The dollar tends to weaken on FOMC decision days. DXY has fallen the past 3 meetings and 6 of the past 7,” explains Win Thin, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.
Additional Quotes:
“We are not yet ready to change our strong dollar call, especially if the Fed delivers a hawkish message as we expect. Yes, the U.S. economic data have been weakening but we do not think a recession is imminent. When all is said and done, we believe the U.S. economy remains the most resilient. However, we expect a period of consolidation ahead for the dollar until the U.S. economic outlook becomes clearer.”
“The two-day FOMC ends today and the Fed is widely expected to hike rates 75 bp to 2.50%. WIRP suggests only 10% odds of a 100 bp move. Updated macro forecasts and Dot Plots won’t come until the September meeting. Another 75 bp hike September 21 is only about 45% priced in, with a 50 bp move favored then. A 25 bp hike is priced in for November 2 but after that, one last 25 bp hike is only partially priced in.”
“The swaps market paints a similar picture, with 175 of tightening priced in over the next 6 months that would see the policy rate peak near 3.5%. Then, an easing cycle is priced in for the subsequent 6 months. This pricing is now more dovish than the June Dot Plots, which sees the Fed Funds rate rising to 3.75% in 2023 before falling to 3.375% in 2024.”
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