NZD/USD slides below 0.6200 on downbeat NZ Retail Sales, focus on US data, RBNZ’s Orr

• NZD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low after downbeat New Zealand data.
• New Zealand’s Q2 Retail Sales dropped -2.3% QoQ, -1.6% YoY.
• Fears surrounding China recedes, mixed US data also tests DXY bulls ahead of the key event.
• Second-tier US statistics will decorate calendar ahead of Thursday’s speech from RBNZ Governor Orr.

NZD/USD remains pressured for the second consecutive day, taking offers around 0.6190 to refresh the intraday low, amid downbeat New Zealand (NZ) Retail Sales figures. Also exerting downside pressure on the Kiwi pair is the cautious mood ahead of the key annual speaking event at the Jackson Hole.

New Zealand’s second quarter (Q2) Retail Sales growth slumped to -2.3% QoQ versus -0.5% prior. The yearly figures also dropped way below the previous readings of 0.0% to -1.6% YoY.

Being the first partial indicator for the NZ Q2 GDP, the data managed to keep bears hopeful and raise challenges for Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr when he speaks at the Jackson Hole on Thursday. It’s worth noting that the recently mixed NZ data have raised doubts about the RBNZ’s further rate hikes, which in turn keeps the NZD/USD bears hopeful.

Even so, mixed US data and the market’s anxiety ahead of the key event, namely the Jackson Hole symposium, keep the pair bears on their toes. US Durable Goods Order for July dropped to 0.0% versus 0.6% expected and an upwardly revised 2.2% previous reading. However, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft rose past 0.3% market consensus to 0.4%, versus 0.9% prior. Further, Pending Home Sales improved to -1.0% MoM in July versus -4.0% expected and -8.9% prior (revised down from -8.6%). On a yearly basis, the Pending Home Sales decreased by 19.9%, versus the previous contraction of 20.0%.

Also testing the NZD/USD bears are the recent hopes that China may manage to overcome the recession woes, even with smaller losses. Various Chinese state media agencies are coming to the rescue of the local currency, the yuan, after the recent depreciation, justifying that the country’s strong exports should offset a stronger dollar and hawkish Fed rate hikes, mentioned Reuters on Wednesday.

Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields rose the most in a week while refreshing a two-month high around 3.10% whereas the Wall Street benchmarks printed mild gains.

Looking forward, the second version of the US Q2 GDP will join the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for the said period to decorate the calendar. However, major attention will be given to RBNZ Governor Orr’s speech at the Jackson Hole for fresh impulse.

Technical analysis

NZD/USD seesaws between a two-month-old horizontal area of 0.6135-50 and the 50-DMA level near 0.6235. However, MACD and RSI (14) are in favor of the sellers of late.