USD/JPY rebound pokes 143.00 amid Japan’s holiday, Fed, BOJ eyed

• USD/JPY pares intraday losses inside immediate trading range near two-decade high.
• Yields remain unchanged as Japan celebrates the Respect-for-the-Aged Day holiday on Monday.
• Mixed sentiment, light calendar also restrict intraday moves.
• Fed vs. BOJ divergence can keep buyers hopeful even as intervention talks tease short-term sellers.

USD/JPY bounces off intraday low towards regaining 143.00 even as Monday’s off in Japan restricts the yen pair’s immediate moves. That said, the quote’s latest rebound could be linked to the cautiously optimistic sentiment and the market’s preparations for this week’s monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains despite the downbeat closing of the Wall Street benchmarks.

The reason could be linked to the comments from US President Biden who said, “I'm more optimistic than I have been in a long time.” The national leader also stated that they are going to get control of inflation. On the same line are the covid updates from China as it unlocks Dalian a city in China’s Liaoning province while witnessing zero coronavirus cases in Beijing and one, versus zero the previous day, outside Shanghai’s quarantine zone.

However, US President Biden’s readiness to back Taiwan in case China attacks Taipei and the hawkish hopes for the Fed seems to keep the USD/JPY buyers hopeful ahead of the key monetary policy announcements. It should be noted, however, that the chatters surrounding the BOJ’s intervention appeared to have stopped the bulls of late.

On Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary readings of Consumer Sentiment for September came in at 59.5, up from 58.6 in the prior month while easing below 60.0 market forecasts. With the firmer US data, the odds of the Fed’s 75 basis points rate hike (bps) rose to nearly 80%, around 82% by the press time, while the market’s expectations of a full one percentage increase in the Fed rate rose to 18%.

Given the holiday in Japan and a light calendar elsewhere, USD/JPY may witness a sluggish session. However, the Fed vs. BOJ play will be critical for the pair traders to watch this week. Not only the interest rate announcements, which in are mostly priced-in, the economic forecasts and speeches from the respective central bank leaders are also crucial. Should Fed Chair Powell disappoints US dollar bulls and the BOJ shows readiness to intervene to defend the yen, the odds of the USD/JPY downside can’t be ruled out.

Technical analysis

A short-term trading range between 145.00 and 141.50 can restrict USD/JPY moves. However, the first daily closing below the 10-DMA since mid-August favors sellers of late.