Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains depressed near $1,665 amid sustained USD strength

• Gold meets with a fresh supply and slides back closer to the YTD low set on Friday.
• Resurgent USD demand turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure.
• The risk-off impulse helps limit losses ahead of key central bank meetings this week.

Gold maintains its offered tone through the early North American session and is currently placed near the $1,665 region, just above the daily low. A stronger US dollar is seen weighing on the dollar-denominated commodity, which remains well within the striking distance of its lowest level since April 2020 touched on Friday.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive rate-hike path to tame uncomfortably high inflation continue to underpin the greenback. A fall in the near-term inflation expectations for consumer prices in the US to a one-year low in September forced investors to scale back bets for a full 100 bps Fed rate hike move. The US central bank, however, is expected to deliver at least a 75 bps at the end of a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, which continues to underpin the greenback.

This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This, along with the prospects for a faster interest rate hike by other major central banks, further contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, the prevalent risk-off environment, as depicted by a fresh leg down in the equity markets, offers some support to traditional safe-haven assets. This turns out to be the only factor lending some support to gold and limiting the downside, at least for now.

Investors also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of a flurry of central bank meetings this week. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics. This will be followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. This, in turn, should assist investors to determine the next leg of a directional move for gold.

Technical levels to watch