USD/IDR Price News: Rupiah renews 30-month low around $15,500 on downbeat Indonesia trade data

• USD/IDR takes the bids to renew multi-month high, up for third consecutive day.
• Indonesia Exports eased to 20.28% in September versus 27.91% expected, 30.15% prior.
• US dollar pullback challenges buyers but softer equities in Asia-Pacific favor bulls.

USD/IDR stays on the front foot as bulls poke the $15,500 threshold, refreshing 2.5-year high by the press time of mid-Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the Indonesia rupiah (IDR) pair pays little heed to the US dollar’s pullback amid downbeat trade numbers at home.

As per the latest release, Indonesia’s Exports for September came in as 20.28% compared to 27.91% market forecasts and 30.15% prior readings. Further details suggest that the Imports also dropped below 31.48% forecast and 32.81% previous readings to 22.02%. Even so, the Trade Balance improves to $4.99B compared to $4.84B market forecasts and $5.76B prior.

Other than the data, sour sentiment in the Asia-Pacific zone, mainly due to China’s determination to keep the zero-covid policy and strengthen military power, also fuel the USD/IDR prices.

On the contrary, US Dollar Index (DXY) helps gold buyers to consolidate recent losses amid a light calendar day. That said, the DXY drops by 0.26% to around 113.00 by the press time. The greenback’s latest losses could be linked to the easing fears of the UK market’s collapse, especially after the recent appointment of Jeremy Hunt as the new British Chancellor, as well as keeping the tax rate unchanged. Also weighing on the DXY could be the lack of major data/events, as well as the absence of the 1.0% Fed rate hike concerns.

Even so, Friday’s upbeat US data and the recently hawkish Fed speak keeps the USD/IDR buyers hopeful amid around 99% chance of the Fed’s 75 bps move in November.

That said, US Retail Sales remained unchanged with 0.0% growth for September versus 0.2% expected 0.4% upwardly revised prior. Further, the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October were 59.8, better than the forecasted figure of 59 and 58.6 previous readings. More importantly, the University of Michigan’s 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations increased for October, respectively to 2.9% and 5.1% compared to 2.7% and 4.7% priors in that order.

During the weekend, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said, “The US has a serious inflation problem,” the policymaker also adds, “Front loading fed policy is the right strategy.”

Technical analysis

An ascending resistance line from August 05, around $15,500, appears the key hurdle for the USD/IDR bulls. The pullback, however, remains elusive unless breaking a seven-day-old support line, near $15,290 by the press time.