USD/CAD pares the biggest daily loss in two weeks above 1.3700 as US dollar rebounds, crude oil drops

• USD/CAD takes the bids to renew intraday high, extends bounce off one-week low.
• Hawkish Fed bets, easing risk-on mood underpin the DXY rebound.
• Hopes of US SPR release exert downside pressure on oil prices.
• Second-tier US/Canadian statistics can entertain traders, risk catalysts are the key to bull’s return.

USD/CAD refreshes intraday top around 1.3740 as markets reassess the week-start optimism amid a lack of data/events, as well as fears of intervention by major central banks. Also exerting downside pressure on the Loonie pair during Tuesday’s Asian session could be the hawkish Fed bets and the softer oil prices, Canada’s key export item.

US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers to 112.20 while paring the biggest daily fall in two weeks. That said, CME’s FedWatch Tool prints a nearly 95% chance of a 75 bps Fed rate hike in November. In doing so, the tool might have taken clues from upbeat comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, suggesting a strong US jobs market, as well as upbeat US inflation expectations as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data.

It should be noted that China’s zero-covid policy, delaying of the key data/events and determination to defend the might of taking control in Hong Kong and Taiwan also underpin the US dollar’s safe-haven demand.

Elsewhere, talks that the White House is up for releasing oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) seem to weigh on the WTI crude oil prices. With this, the black gold prints 0.40% intraday losses around $84.40 by the press time.

Talking about the risk catalysts, S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street’s gains but the US 10-year Treasury yields retreat to 3.99%, which in turn favors the US Dollar Index (DXY) buyers of late.

Looking ahead, headlines from the UK will be important for the USD/CAD traders as the same propelled the market’s risk-on mood and favored DXY bears the previous day. Also important will be the second-tier housing data from the US and Canada.

Overall, USD/CAD is likely to remain firmer but the bulls will need a strong catalyst to convince markets.

Technical analysis

Despite the latest rebound, the USD/CAD remains below a five-week-old resistance line, previous support around 1.3815, which in turn keeps the sellers hopeful.