EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Fluctuates around the 200-DMA subdued amid the lack of catalyst

• EUR/JPY is set to finish the week with decent gains of 0.88% after being down 2.40%.
• Short term, an EUR/JPY break above 147.00 will expose the YTD high; otherwise, a fall toward 146.00 is on the cards.

The EUR/JPY rebounds from a one-month-old upslope trendline and climbs back above 146.00, following the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision, which ended with the ECB lifting rates and laying the ground for subsequent hikes. However, the markets perceived a dovish hike, as the Euro dived against most G8 currencies. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY is trading at 146.81, gaining 0.76%.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY daily chart illustrates the pair as upward biased, even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention was fruitful with the USD/JPY, dragging alongside some other Japanese Yen (JPY) crosses, including the EUR/JPY. However, since reaching a weekly low at 143.72, the cross-currency pair rallied 300 pips, set for weekly gains of almost 1%.

However, it should be noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), albeit in bullish territory, it has a downward slope. So, as price action registers successive series of higher highs, the RSI does the opposite, setting the pair for a negative divergence.

Short term, the EUR/JPY hourly chart portrays the pair as range-bound, with risks skewed to the upside due to the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) lying below the spot price, except for the 100-EMA, which sits around 146.93, a difficult resistance level to hurdle. But once it’s cleared, the next resistance would be 147.00, followed by the October 25 daily high at 147.72, ahead of the YTD high at 148.40.

On the flip side, if the EUR/JPY tumbles below the 200-EMA, the next demand area would be the confluence of the 20 and 50-EMAs around 146.55/60, once cleared, could lay the way towards the daily pivot at 146.32, ahead of the 146.00 figure.

EUR/JPY Key Technical Levels