EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears struggle below the parity level

• EUR/USD remains sidelined, mildly offered, after printing two-week uptrend.
• Clear downside break of 21-SMA, one-week-old previous support favor sellers amid downbeat oscillators.
• Resistance-turned-support from early October restricts immediate downside.

EUR/USD struggles for clear directions around the mid-0.9900s even as bears keep the reins during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the major currency pair seesaws between the 21-SMA and the previous resistance line from October 07.

Given the bearish MACD signals and the downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, the EUR/USD prices are likely to extend the previous day’s downside break of the one-week-old ascending trend line, as well as the 21-SMA.

Hence, EUR/USD sellers could wait for a successful break of the 0.9960 immediate support line, previous resistance, for conviction.

Following that, a downward trajectory towards an upward-sloping trend line from September 27, close to 0.9755, appears more likely. During the fall, the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s September-October downside, near 0.9870 and 0.9790 in that order, will be crucial intermediate levels to watch.

On the flip side, the 21-SMA hurdle surrounding the parity level of 1.0000 guards the EUR/USD pair’s immediate recovery before directing buyers towards the previous weekly resistance line, close to 1.0095 at the latest. It’s worth noting that the monthly high also strengthens the 1.0095 hurdle.

Should the EUR/USD bulls manage to cross the 1.0095 resistance, as well as the 1.0100 threshold, the odds of witnessing a rally towards the previous monthly peak near 1.0200 can’t be ruled out.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected