Eurozone HICP Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, another peak in inflation

Eurostat will release Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October on Monday, October 31 at 10:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of five major banks regarding the upcoming EU inflation print.

For the eurozone as a whole, headline inflation is expected at 9.8% year-on-year vs. 9.9% in September and core is expected at 4.8% YoY vs. 4.8% in September. On a monthly basis, the HICP is expected at 0.6% vs. 1.2% booked in September while the core HICP is foreseen at 1.2% against the previous figure of 1%. 

Commerzbank

“In the euroarea, the inflation rate is likely to have risen from 9.9% in September to 10.0% in October. It is true that energy prices rose only about half as much in October as in October 2021, which in itself depresses the inflation rate by 0.4 percentage points. But this effect is likely to be more than offset by the further strong rise in food prices and a further slight increase in the inflation rate excluding energy, food and beverages from 4.8% to 4.9%.”

Danske Bank

“Following the higher-than-expected prints out of Germany, Italy and France we expect an increase to 10.8% from 9.9% in September.”

SocGen

“We think euro area inflation will reach a new high of 10.7% in October, up 0.8pp from September. Meanwhile, we think core inflation will increase by 0.1pp to 4.9%.”

TDS

“We look for another significant jump in EZ inflation, with headline at 10.8% and core at 5%, on the back of sharp upside surprises in Germany, Italy, and France. We think energy prices will be the main driver, although both services and core goods inflation will likely also provide upside pressure. The outlook for inflation remains highly uncertain, particularly due to prospective fiscal subsidies.”

Citibank

“We expect eurozone HICP to hit 10.0%.”