Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises sharply to fresh three-week highs but retreated to $19.60s

• Silver price rallies more than 2.50% courtesy of a flat US Dollar and unchanged US Treasury yields.
• A risk-off impulse acted as a tailwind for XAG, albeit goodish US economic data underpinned the USD.
• XAG/USD traders brace for the November Federal Reserve’s meeting, eyeing Jerome Powell’s press conference, looking for a Fed pivot.

Silver price snaps two days of losses and climbs above the 20 and the 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) amidst a flat US Dollar while falling US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year rate, is almost unchanged at 4.046%. Hence the XAG/USD is trading at $19.60, up by 2.63%.

XAG/USD climbs steadily and holds to gains, despite goodish US data

Wall Street trimmed some of its earlier losses, though it closed in the red. US economic data reinforced the need for further Federal Reserve tightening as manufacturing activity continues to expand at the brink of entering recessionary territory, which could pressure Jerome Powell and Co. to decelerate their pace of interest-rate hikes.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI for October was better than expected at 50.2 but lower than September’s reading, while the price index showed that costs fell to more than a two-year low. Earlier, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the same period was a prelude for the ISM’s one, at 50.4, above estimates and the previous month’s number.

Meanwhile, the JOLTS report, revealed by the US Labor Department, reported that job openings jumped by 10.717 million, above the 10 million estimates, and smashed August’s 10.28 million.

Once the reports crossed newswires, the white metal retreated from three-week highs of $20.02 to just above the 100-day EMA at $19.50, which was difficult support to hurdle.

That said, XAG/USD traders brace for the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Most of the street’s analysts expect a 75 bps rate hike, but they would scrutinize each word of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to assess whether there’s a Fed pivot or the December’s meeting would be “live,” meaning that there would not be any forward guidance.

Before the Fed’s decision, the US calendar will reveal the ADP Employment Change report.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a daily chart perspective, XAG/USD is neutral-to-downward biased unless silver buyers reclaim October’s high of $21.23. Break above the latter will expose essential resistance levels, like the 200-day EMA at $21.54, which, once cleared, could send XAG/USD rallying to June high at $21.92. On the other hand, XAG/USD's first support would be the 100-day EMA at $19.50, followed by the 20-day EMA at $19.28, ahead of the 50-day EMA at $19.10.