USDJPY Price Analysis: Remains below 200-period SMA on H4, eyes US CPI for fresh impetus

• USDJPY remains confined in a narrow trading band through the early North American session.
• Some follow-through USD buying offers support to the pair ahead of the crucial US CPI report.
• A sustained break below the 145.00 mark is needed to confirm a near-term bearish breakdown.

The USDJPY pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the 145.15-145.10 support, or a nearly two-week low and oscillates in a narrow band through the early North American session. Spot prices, however, manage to hold comfortably above the 146.00 round figure and remain well supported by some follow-through US Dollar buying.

In fact, the USD Index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, adds to the overnight recovery gains and scales higher for the second successive day on Thursday. The uptick lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures.

From a technical perspective, the upside for the USDJPY pair remains capped near a support breakpoint, marking the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The said barrier is currently pegged around the 146.75 region and should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders. A sustained strength beyond should pave the way for some meaningful upside.

The USDJPY pair might then surpass the 147.00 round figure and aim to challenge a three-week-old descending trend-line barrier, around the 147.85 region. Some follow-through buying beyond the 148.00 mark will negate any near-term bearish bias and lift spot prices towards the next relevant resistance near the 148.45-148.50 supply zone.

On the flip side, weakness back the 146.00 mark now seems to find some support near the mid-145.00s. Any subsequent decline might continue to attract some buying near the 145.15-145.10 region, which if broken decisively will make the USDJPY pair vulnerable. The downfall could get extended to the 144.45 horizontal zone en route to the 144.00 mark.

USDJPY 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch