USDCAD shifts business above 1.3300 as risk-off profile resurfaces, oil nosedives

• USDCAD has established firmly above 1.3300 as downbeat risk profile recovered and oil prices plummeted.
• The DXY has climbed above 107.00 amid anxiety ahead of the US midterm elections outcome.
• A significant surge in China’s Covid-19 cases has weighed heavily on oil prices.

The USDCAD pair has shifted its auction profile above the round-level hurdle of 1.3300 in the Tokyo session. The asset picked bids after overstepping 1.3300 as the upbeat market mood has started fading now ahead of the US midterm elections outcome.

It is still tricky to confirm the risk profile as a negative one as the US dollar index (DXY) has advanced along with a recovery in the S&P500 futures. The DXY has climbed above the round-level hurdle of 107.00 after remaining in negative territory from the past few trading sessions.

The street is stamping a change in stewardship to Republicans for the House of Representatives. This may bring political instability and interference from Republicans in the passing of bills and laws that would hinder expansion plans.

The returns generated by US government bonds are marginally higher amid a rebound in risk-off mood as expectations for a slowdown in the pace of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have escalated. As per the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of announcing a fifth consecutive 75 basis point (bps) stand below 20%.

Meanwhile, Loonie investors are shifting their focus toward inflation data, which will release on Wednesday. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is seen higher at 6.3% while the headline CPI could inch higher to 7.0%.

On the oil front, oil prices witnessed a bloodbath on Monday as Covid-19 cases in China jumped heavily simultaneously when the administration relaxes measures. Time magazine said in a focus piece that “China just relaxed some pandemic measures, but experts suggest 'Zero-COVID’ probably won’t be going away anytime soon,” This triggered signals of further decline in economic projections and eventually the oil demand.

Weak oil prices must have weighed heavily on the Canadian dollar as Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the US.