US Industrial Production Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, slower gain in October

US October Industrial Production will be reported on Wednesday, November 16 at 14:15 GMT and is expected at 0.2% month-on-month vs. 0.4% in September. Here you can find the expectations as forecast by the economists and researchers of six major banks regarding the upcoming data. 

Overall, the manufacturing sector is slowing but has held up relatively well in the face of Fed tightening.

RBC Economics

“We expect US Industrial Production to edge up 0.1% in October, with higher manufacturing output (+0.4%) offsetting a pullback in utilities output (-1%).”

NBF

“Output growth could have decelerated in the manufacturing segment, but that may have been offset by a strong showing for utilities. All in all, headline Industrial Production may have risen 0.3% MoM.”

CIBC

“Hours worked continued to rise in manufacturing in October, while employers added to headcounts, suggesting that the ongoing alleviation of supply chain issues is supporting factory activity in some sub-sectors. Although oil rig counts also increased, weaker demand for goods outside of autos could have limited growth in total Industrial Production to 0.2% in October.”

Wells Fargo

“We expect Industrial Production to increase 0.2% in October, and we look for capacity utilization to inch up to a fresh cycle high of 80.4%.”

Citibank

“Industrial Production should rise a modest 0.1% MoM in October, but with a stronger 0.4% MoM increase in manufacturing production. Weaker utilities production in total IP would be a result of relatively more mild temperatures during the month of October. For the largest subset of manufacturing, however, this would be another solid increase similar to September, in line with strength in manufacturing employment in October and a pick up in hours worked. The manufacturing sector does face downside risks from weaker goods demand globally and a strong USD weighing on export demand. However, real production as measured in the industrial production report has remained solid with no substantial weakening just yet, possibly as softer demand allows production to pick up after many months of constrained supply.”

TDS

“We expect Industrial Production to contract 0.3% MoM in October following the strong 0.4% gain registered in September. We expect strength in manufacturing activities (+0.5% MoM) to be more than offset by a sharp decline in output for the utilities sector.”