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- There is a potential dovish shift on the FOMC this year – BBH
There is a potential dovish shift on the FOMC this year – BBH
Previewing this week's upcoming key macroeconomic events, analysts at BBH noted that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting will be very important.
There is a potential dovish shift on the FOMC this year
"At the December meeting, the Fed downshifted to 50 bp hike. However, Chair Powell delivered a very hawkish message at his press conference and so the minutes should help fill in the picture. We continue to believe markets are underestimating the Fed. WIRP suggests a 25 bp hike February 1 is fully priced in, with over 30% odds of a larger 50 bp move. Another 25 bp hike March 22 is fully priced in, with nearly 50% odds of one last 25 bp hike in Q2 that would take the Fed Funds rate ceiling up to 5.25%. However, the swaps market continues to price in an easing cycle by year-end and we just don’t see that happening. Barkin speaks Friday."
"There is a potential dovish shift on the FOMC this year. Goolsbee, Harker, Logan, and Kashkari are now voting members of the FOMC. Harker and Logan are considered centrists, Kashkari has transformed into a hawk, and Goolsbee is an unknown quantity. While we hesitate to call these new voters dovish, they replace a group of noted hawks made up of Bullard, Mester, George, and Collins, who become non-voters in 2023. All seven members of the Board of Governors and Williams (New York Fed is a permanent voter) will remain voters this year."
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