Aussie Trade Balance supports AUD/USD, but US CPI eyed

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been released as follows:

• Australia November balance goods/svcs A$+13,201 mln, s/adj (Reuters poll: A$+10,500 mln).
• November goods/services exports 0 pct MoM, seasonally adjusted.
• November goods/services imports -1 pct MoM, seasonally adjusted.
• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $13,201m in November 2022, an increase of $458m on the surplus in October 2022. 

The data seems to have supported AUD/USD following a series of positive data from the prior session. AUD/USD is up 0.22% to a session high of 0.6920 so far.

However, eyes are on the US Consumer Price Index:

Investors eye the US December inflation report, which is expected to show US prices rose by an annualized 6.5%. This is lower than November's 7.1% pace. Investors are monitoring the Consumer Price Index closely as the expectations are that if it were to continue to decelerate, so too will the Federal Reserve's pace of rate hikes. Analysts at TD Securities explained that they are looking for the core Consumer Price Index to have edged higher on a monthly basis in December, ''closing out the year on a relatively stronger footing,'' they said.

''Indeed, we forecast a firm 0.3% MoM increase, as services inflation likely gained momentum. In terms of the headline, we expect the Consumer Price Index inflation to register a slight decline on an unrounded basis in December, but rounded up to flat MoM, as energy prices offered large relief again. Our MoM projections imply that headline and core CPI inflation likely lost speed on a YoY basis in December.''

About the Aussie Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.