When is Australia Retail Sales and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Retail Sales Overview

Early Tuesday, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for December month at 00:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests a softer seasonally adjusted MoM print of -0.3% versus 1.4% prior, suggesting the lack of sustained improvement in economic activity.

Given the recently stronger Aussie inflation data and the previously downbeat comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cautious mood, not to forget the challenges to sentiment ahead of this week’s key data/events, today’s Aussie Retail Sales appear crucial for the AUD/USD traders.

It should be noted that China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI, up for publishing around 01:00 AM GMT, also increases the importance of the Asia-Pacific economic calendar on Tuesday. Forecasts suggest that the former is likely to remain below 50, close to 49.7, despite improving from 47.0 prior while the latter could regain above 50 level of 51.0 after slumping to 41.6 the previous month. It should be noted that the above 50 prints describe the activity increase while the below 50 numbers hint at a contraction in the activities.

Ahead of the data, Westpac said,

How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD remains pressured around 0.7050 after beginning the week’s trading with a downside gap. Although the Covid updates from China and the US have recently been trying to stop the Aussie pair bears, the market’s fears ahead of the top-tier US data and events, as well as China’s official activity numbers, exert downside pressure on the Aussie pair as of late.

That said, the likely easy economics from Australia and China may add losses to the AUD/USD prices amid recently sluggish sentiment and doubts over the RBA’s next move, despite firmer inflation data. It’s worth noting, however, that a strong print will join the upbeat Aussie Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and could enable the Aussie pair to better position for this week’s volatile session.

Technically, a one-month-old bullish channel restricts AUD/USD pair’s downside near the 0.7000 round figure.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie weakens ahead of first-tier Asian figures 

AUD/USD finds intermediate support around 0.7050, risk-off mood still intact

About Australian Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.