Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD sticks to modest gains, seems vulnerable below mid-$22.00s

• Silver gains positive traction for the second straight day, though lacks follow-through.
• The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses.
• A sustained weakness below the $22.00 mark is needed to confirm a bearish break.

Silver edges higher for the second successive day on Thursday and sticks to its modest gains through the early European session. The white metal, however, lacks bullish conviction and remains below the mid-$22.00s, well within a familiar trading range held since the beginning of the week.

The XAG/USD, meanwhile, manages to hold the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from October 2022 and above a two-month low touched on Monday. Furthermore, the subsequent bounce warrants caution before positioning for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, favours bearish traders.

A convincing break below the $22.00 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and drag the XAG/USD to the next relevant support near the 100-day SMA, around the $21.80-$21.75 region. This is followed by 50% Fibo. level, around the $21.35 area, below which the metal could fall to the $21.00 level en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $20.60-$20.55 zone. The descending trend could get extended towards testing the $20.00 psychological mark.

On the flip side, any subsequent move-up is likely to attract fresh sellers near the $22.70 region and remain capped near the $23.00 confluence support breakpoint. The said handle comprised 23.6% Fibo. level and the lower end of a nearly two-month-old trading range and should act as a tough nut to crack for the XAG/USD bulls. That said, a sustained move beyond might offset the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders.

The XAG/USD might then surpass the $24.00 round-figure mark and climb back to the $24.55-$24.60 supply zone, or a multi-month top touched last week. The momentum could get extended towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022, above which bulls might aim to test the next relevant hurdle near the $25.35 region.

Silver daily chart

Key levels to watch