NZD/USD Price Analysis: Mean reversion to 50-EMA sounds bargain buy for NZ Dollar

• NZD/USD has printed a fresh day low at 0.6222 amid the risk-off mood.
• A mean reversion to near 50-EMA is offering a bargain buy to investors.
• The RSI (14) is expected to find a cushion around 40.00.

The NZD/USD pair has refreshed its day low at 0.6222 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset has sensed pressure and soaring US yields have dampened the market mood. The 10-year US Treasury yields have jumped to near 4.03% and are showing no signs of exhaustion yet.

S&P500 futures have tumbled in the Asian session as investors are worried about the recession situation in the United States economy, considering the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will push rates above 5% and will keep them steady beyond 2023. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its day high above 104.70 amid the risk-off market mood.

NZD/USD has corrected to near the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 0.6223 after failing to extend its bullish reversal above the horizontal resistance placed from February 21 high at 0.6263 on an hourly scale.

A scrutiny of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) indicates that the momentum oscillator has already delivered a bullish reversal. The oscillation range of the RSI (14) has already shifted to 40.00-80.00. Therefore, the momentum indicator is expected to find a cushion at 40.00.

The Kiwi asset is offering a buying opportunity near the 50-EMA at 0.6223, which could push the major toward March 1 high at 0.6276 followed by the round-level resistance at 0.6300.

In an alternate scenario, a breakdown of January 6 low at 0.6193 will drag the asset toward November 28 low at 0.6155. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward the round-level support at 0.6100.

NZD/USD hourly chart