EUR/USD Price Analysis: 100-SMA probes buyers amid sluggish start to the key week

• EUR/USD picks up bids to print mild gains while extending the previous weekly recovery.
• 100-SMA, one-month-old descending resistance line restrict immediate upside.
• Sluggish MACD signals join sustained trading below two-month-long horizontal hurdle, 200-SMA to keep bears hopeful.

EUR/USD rebound pokes the 100-SMA hurdle around 1.0650 heading into Monday’s European session.

The major currency pair recovered from a two-month low in the last week on broad US Dollar weakness, as well as the hawkish concerns about the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the cautious mood ahead of the top-tier catalysts from the US and Europe seems to test the momentum traders of late.

Also read: EUR/USD grinds lower towards 1.0600 ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales, focus on Fed Chair Powell, US NFP

That said, a one-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0660 by the press time, acts as an extra filter towards the north, apart from the immediate 100-SMA hurdle of 1.0650.

It’s worth noting that the EUR/USD pair’s run-up beyond the 1.0650 hurdle isn’t an open invitation for the quote’s rally as the 200-SMA and a two-month-long horizontal resistance area could check the pair’s further upside, respectively near 1.0745 and 1.0760-65.

Should the EUR/USD pair portray another defeat from the key SMA hurdle, a one-week-old ascending support line near 1.0600 will be crucial to watch as it holds the gate for the pair’s slump toward early 2023 low near 1.0480. Adding strength to the 1.0480 support is November 2022’s top.

In a case where EUR/USD drops below 1.0480, the late November low near 1.0290 and the monthly bottom of 1.0222 will be in focus.

Overall, EUR/USD is likely to recover but the upside room remains limited.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited upside expected