Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds steady below $1,850 level, awaits Powell’s testimony

• Gold price remains on the defensive on Tuesday, though lacks any follow-through selling.
• Retreating US bond yields keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and lends support.
• Traders also seem reluctant ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony.

Gold price struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains beyond the $1,850 area on Tuesday and remains well below a nearly three-week high touched the previous day. The XAU/USD languishes below the $1,845 level through the first half of the European session as traders await a testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell before placing fresh directional bets.

Jerome Powell’s testimony eyed for clues about future rate-hike path

Powell's remarks will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's future rate-hike path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term trajectory of the non-yielding Gold price. Several policymakers recently backed the case for higher rate hikes and opened the door for a 50 bps lift-off at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. Moreover, the incoming macro data from the United States (US) indicated that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped and pointed to an economy that remains resilient despite rising borrowing costs. Hence, a more hawkish commentary will offset any near-term positive outlook for the XAU/USD and shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders.

Retreating US bond yields, subdued US Dollar demand, recession fears lend support

Some market participants, however, are unsure about Powell's tone amid expectations that the US economy might be cooling. This, in turn, prompts some repositioning trade, which is evident from a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields and keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive. Heading into the key event risk, a subdued USD price action lends some support to the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. Apart from this, looming recession risks further contributes to limiting the downside for the safe-haven XAU/USD, at least for the time being. This, in turn, warrants caution for aggressive bearish traders and before positioning for any meaningful retracement slide from a multi-week high touched the previous day.

Traders might refrain from placing directional bets around Gold price

Hence, strong follow-through selling is needed to confirm that the recent recovery from the vicinity of the $1,800 round-figure mark, or the YTD low touched on February 28, has run its course. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the US, the US bond yields could drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to Gold price. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD, though any meaningful movement in either direction seems unlikely.

Gold price technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the $1,835 horizontal zone is likely to protect the immediate downside. Any subsequent decline might find some support near the $1.822-$1,821 area ahead of the $1,810 level and last week's swing low, near the $1,805-$1,804 region. This is closely followed by the $1,800 round-figure mark, which coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make Gold prices vulnerable to slide further.

On the flip side, the $1,856-$1,858 region seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAU/USD could climb to the 100-day SMA, currently around the $1,870 area. This should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move and allow bulls to reclaim the $1,900 mark with some intermediate barrier near the $1,884-$1,886 supply zone.

Key levels to watch