GBP/JPY dips below 161.50 mark as rally pauses amid inflation concerns and BoE Governor Bailey's remarks

• BoE Governor Bailey emphasizes vigilance against persistent inflation.
• Global bond yields, encouraging risk tone boost GBP/JPY rally.
• BRC reports inflation rise in UK, Japan plans JPY 2.2tn stimulus.

GBP/JPY took a pause after a sharp rally, reaching a weekly high of 161.80. This was due to an encouraging risk tone on Monday and rising global bond yields boosting the currency pair.

In a recent speech, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey emphasized the need to stay vigilant for signs of persistent inflationary pressures. He noted that further monetary tightening might be necessary if such pressures materialize. While there are indications of economic resilience, Bailey warned that the inflation path may not be completely smooth. A key priority for monetary policy is to prevent externally-driven inflation from becoming permanent. Bailey also pointed out significant strains in parts of the global banking system, which could impact the broader global economy.

Bailey mentioned that the full effect of recent bank rate increases has yet to be felt, and early retirement-driven inactivity might have contributed to a rise in cyclical rates. In response to these factors, the Bank of England has significantly raised bank rates. Bailey cautioned that inflation might be more persistent than expected, so it is crucial to stay alert for inflationary pressure signs. If such pressures arise, further monetary tightening may be needed to keep inflation under control.

Overall, Bailey's speech underscores the Bank of England's dedication to maintaining price stability while promoting economic growth. Though there are risks, the BoE is proactively managing them to ensure inflation stays within the target range.

These remarks are worth noting since the March BoE meeting did not include a press conference. Most analysts predict the BoE will pause in May, but some expect additional tightening to be required as the central bank's priority remains controlling inflation over banking uncertainty.

Highlighting the inflationary pressure, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that overall shop price inflation increased to 8.9% from 8.4% in February. On the other hand, Japan's Economy Minister Goto announced plans to spend JPY 2.2 trillion on a stimulus package.

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